![]() ![]() Kumar and two colleagues studied data on more than 53,000 customers who left a telecom company over a seven-year period. $20 off for 6 months, plus a $35 movie channel free for 3 monthsĬustomers who left over price get the discount customers who left over service get the upgrade.įrom “Winning Back Lost Customers,” March 2016 Pitching the Right OfferĪ telecom firm tested four win-back offers with 40,000 customers, looking not only at which offer lured back the most people but also at which was the most profitable. Third and most important, recent technology, particularly more-sophisticated customer databases, allows companies to draw on information about how people used their service the first time around to craft more-successful win-back offers and to identify and go after the most profitable defectors. Second, they are familiar with the company, eliminating the need to create brand awareness and educate them about the offering and thus reducing the cost of marketing to them. First, these people have demonstrated a need for the service, making them far better prospects than random names on a cold-call list. Kumar, a marketing professor at Georgia State University who studies “win back” strategies, cites three reasons companies should focus more energy on lapsed customers. New research shows that they might be better served by smart strategies aimed at getting lost customers to come back to the fold. (Other businesses plagued by churn include insurance companies, gyms, and online streaming services.) Companies with high churn typically spend vast sums on marketing to try to replace all those defectors. ![]() Thus, using this simple yet powerful Elliott wave analysis allows us to forecast that we can expect some brief elevated chatter about consumer price inflation followed by growing concern about price deflation as we move into 2021.For any service company that bills on a recurring basis, a key variable is the rate of churn: How many customers cancel? In many competitive industries, churn can be substantial-some wireless carriers, for instance, lose 3% of subscribers each month. If this triangle is a fourth wave, and the thrust higher is therefore a fifth, the subsequent reversal could be extremely deep, perhaps even down towards the low of 0.50% reached in March of this year. But secondly, once that thrust is complete, a reversal should occur, putting downward pressure on consumer price expectations. Firstly, there should be an upward thrust in price inflation expectations in coming weeks. If this is correct, we can forecast two things. consumer price inflation as measured by the 10-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) breakeven rate, the difference in yield between a normal 10-year Treasury bond and one protected against price inflation.Īs we can see, a clear triangle pattern has been traced out since the August high and it now looks complete. The chart below shows the expectations of U.S. In other words, the next wave after a triangle will be a terminating wave, meaning that after a thrust out of the triangle a reversal should occur. We can therefore anticipate that the next wave will either be wave 5 or wave C. Triangles appear most often as wave 4 of an impulse or as wave B of a correction. Triangles only occur at a few points in a market cycle and so, when one appears, it can give us a strong clue as to what’s coming next. One of the Elliott wave patterns most adept at this forecasting edge is the venerable triangle. They’re great at telling us what the trend has been, but useless in telling us what the trend might do tomorrow. ![]() It enables us to anticipate future developments based on the current price pattern, something which is impossible by using tools such as moving averages. This is exactly why people love the Elliott Wave Principle. In that letter he wrote that his discovery was a ‘much needed complement to Dow Theory’ that added ‘great forecasting value which it lacks’. In 1934, Elliott made his discovery that market behavior cycles in repeatable patterns and he wrote to investment advisor Charles Collins in an effort to get his work published. Ralph Nelson Elliott was one of the first subscribers to Rhea’s newsletter and so he knew Dow’s Theory inside out. His writings became known as Dow’s Theory and, in 1932, Robert Rhea published his book ‘The Dow Theory,’ starting a newsletter at the same time. We can use Elliott wave analysis to anticipate changing expectations.Ĭharles Dow, creator of the Dow Jones stock market averages, founder of the Wall Street Journal and grandfather of what we now know as technical analysis, wrote extensively about market behavior before his death in 1902. ![]()
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